The UK REGO Market
Understanding the UK REGO Market in 2025: Trends, Prices, and Fundamentals
Published 08/08/25
4 minute read time
The UK Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO) market is undergoing significant change, shaped by evolving supply dynamics and robust demand from multiple sectors. At TotalEnergies Gas & Power, we understand that navigating this landscape requires not only up-to-date market intelligence, but also an expert view on the trends that matter most.
In this blog, Matthew Chapman, Origination Analyst, provides a concise yet comprehensive overview of the REGO market's fundamentals. Matthew considers how renewable generation, grid constraints, and lags in REGO allocation are impacting certificate supply, while also exploring the drivers of demand - from corporate sustainability strategies to increasing public sector adoption and voluntary commitments.
Stay with us we unpack these trends and discuss what they mean for businesses seeking to procure renewable electricity in a rapidly changing market.
Over to you Matthew...
What are REGOs exactly...
A REGO certificate is a Renewable Energy Guarantee of Origin and shows what proportion of your electricity comes from renewable sources. The primary use of REGO's is for Fuel Mix Disclosure (FMD) which requires licenced suppliers to disclose the mix of fuels used to generate the electricity supplied. Ofgem issues one REGO certificate for every megawatt hour of renewable energy that's produced from accredited generators.
Price Movements: What's been happening...
The price of REGO certificates has surged dramatically over the past five years. Back in early 2020, a REGO was worth around £0.20/MWh. In 2023 we then saw prices spike to the range of £20-25/MWh. Since then, REGO prices have dropped off, consistently falling in 2024. We are now at levels ranging between £1-2/MWh but there's still a lot of volatility day-to-day.
What caused the price spike...
A few things drove that spike. ESG (environmental, social, governance) reporting requirements have become much stricter, and customers now expect real, measurable action on sustainability. That's pushed businesses to prove their green credentials, driving up demand for REGOs.
On top of this from April 2023, UK suppliers could no longer use EU GoO's (EU Guarantees of Origin) for FMD (fuel mix disclosure) so the demand for UK-issued REGOs jumped even higher.
On the supply side, due to the intermittent nature of renewable generation and capacity constraints on the grid, renewable power often gets curtailed in periods of low demand and high renewable generation - so fewer REGOs get issued. Further to this it's estimated that £60 billion of investment will be needed for grid infrastructure improvements to meet clean power goals by 2035 with significant renewable capacity waiting for connections to the grid.
What caused the price drop...
Since these record highs, prices have steadily declined to the £1-2/MWh range due to changing supply and demand balance. Some customers weren't willing to pay high prices for REGO backed supply and started looking at alternatives such as corporate power purchase agreements (CPPAs) or investing in energy efficiency. There's also optimism about future renewable supply, amid recent government support and allocation rounds for Contracts for Difference and governmental support for renewable energy.
Despite this, volatility remains in the REGO market and day to day prices can swing based just on who's buying and selling at any given moment, with some help from the basic supply-demand fundamentals.
The importance of REGOs...
The UK government's ambitious decarbonisation targets - such as a fully decarbonised electricity grid by 2030, have increased the strategic importance of REGOs. As more sectors are brought into mandatory carbon reporting frameworks, the demand for certificates is expected to remain strong.
Supply and Demand Fundamentals: The Core Drivers...
- Supply Side: The amount of renewable energy generated, and how quickly new capacity gets connected, determines how many REGOs come to market. Remember, REGOs are issued retrospectively, which means there's always a lag between generation and availability which can add to short-term supply shortages.
- Demand Side: More companies are buying REGOs to hit Scope 2 emissions targets and align with net-zero pledges. The voluntary market is growing too, lots of businesses go beyond what's required just to show they're serious about sustainability. The Public Sector are also increasingly incorporating REGO-backed electricity into procurement frameworks.
Looking Ahead: The Market Outlook
Looking ahead, I expect the REGO market to remain relatively volatile. While renewable capacity is expanding, particularly in offshore wind and solar, intermittency and infrastructure constrains, and delays will continue to limit the pace of REGOs. Meanwhile, demand is expected to grow as more organisations adopt science-based targets, net-zero commitments, a push towards more conversations about full disclosure.
Final thoughts...
As the UK REGO market continues to evolve amidst changing regulations, shifting supply-demand dynamics, and the nation's drive towards a net-zero future, staying informed is more important than ever. Understanding certificate price trends, market fundamentals, and policy development can help businesses make strategic, sustainable decisions about their energy procurement.
If you would like to discuss any aspects of the REGO market, explore opportunities for your business, or have specific questions about renewable electricity procurement, our Energy Management team is here to support you. Get in touch with us today for expert guidance and tailored solutions to help you navigate the complexities of the renewable energy landscape.
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